CA-48

The Do-Nothing Blogger

2005-09-12T12:14:00.000-07:00

With great reluctance and a heavy heart, it is my regret to confirm that which has been the subject of the blogosphere's speculation; CA-48 is no more.

For unfortunate and unexpected personal reasons. Among others.

To my friends on the right, I wish nothing but the best. Your dedication to the cause (however misguided) is impressive. Equally as important, your writing is as enjoyable to read as it is to critique.

To my friends on the left, persevere. Orange County may or may not turn Brewer (keywords: John Campbell, Oracle, Chris Micheli, KPMG, and El Paso Energy), but it will sooner rather than later turn blue. Christian conservatives can only dominate the Republican Party for so long before small business moderates follow social moderates out the door.

To my friends in the middle, I issue a challenge; more on policy and less on process, more on substance and less on style. Please.

Regretfully,

Sam

P.S. Who/what might have been (Congresswoman).

The Do-Nothing Senator

2005-09-02T12:49:00.000-07:00

The far-right criticizes John Campbell for two votes. The first, AB 540, to give in-state tuition benefits to illegal immigrants and their children. The second, ACR 229, to urge cities and counties to accept Mexican Consular Identification Cards.

But equally as damaging as Campbell's votes may be the votes he missed. The first, AB 60, to allow illegal immigrants to obtain California Drivers Licenses. The second, AB 25, to require state agencies to accept identification from other countries. The third, AB 522, to require cities and counties to do the same.

Why? Because Jim Gilchrist could (and probably should) re-create the Club for Growth's narrative.

Male 1: JOHN CAMPBELL?
Male 2: ABSENT.

Male 1: JOHN CAMPBELL?
Male 2: ABSENT.

Announcer: IN THE STATE LEGISLATURE, JOHN CAMPBELL SKIPPED MORE IMMIGRATION VOTES THAN ALL BUT ONE ORANGE COUNTY REPRESENTATIVE.

CAMPBELL FAILED TO VOTE AGAINST ALLOWING ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS TO OBTAIN CALIFORNIA DRIVERS LICENSES AND DIDN'T BOTHER TO VOTE AGAINST REQUIRING STATE AGENCIES, CITIES, AND COUNTIES TO ACCEPT IDENTIFICATION FROM MEXICO.

WHEN HE DID SHOW UP, HE VOTED TO GIVE IN-STATE TUITION BENEFITS TO ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS AND TO URGE CITIES AND COUNTIES TO ACCEPT MEXICAN IDENTIFICATION CARDS.

JOHN CAMPBELL. SO ANTI-AMERICAN, CALIFORNIANS ARE BETTER OFF WHEN HE DOESN'T VOTE.

JIM GILCHRIST FOR CONGRESS IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CONTENT OF THIS ADVERTISING.

Tom Tomorrow

2005-09-02T11:27:00.000-07:00

New Majority Co-Founder and Chairman Emeritus Tom Tucker has a must-read comment up at the OC Blog about the process by which his organization came to endorse State Senator John Campbell. A single paragraph is worth a second read:

New Majority's Mission Statement clearly speaks for itself. In case there is any confusion, "we are strongly against social litmus tests, and are inclusive in our membership." Regarding our members in Orange County, about 30% hold more conservative views, and the others would be considered center right. We are primarily a business oriented group, and fiscal issues are of great importance to us.

Ok...But the Republican Party in California and throughout America is primarily a business oriented group. If the New Majority cares not about social issues, how exactly does the organization differ from the Republican majority as a whole?

It doesn't. Not a single one of the New Majority's four endorsement criteria speaks to a governing ideology different than that of George Bush's Republican Party. When the going got a tough -- an establishment conservative against an outsider (social) moderate -- the New Majority got going. The organization is therefore the Orange County version of "The Fraud Caucus." Per Matthew Yglesias and Mark Leon Goldberg at the American Prospect:

It is only a small exaggeration to say that there are no moderate Republicans at all. There are grandstanders who enjoy the notoriety and media access that can be gained from the occasional off-message statement to the press. There are vulnerable Republicans who need to move to the left every so often in order to win elections. But there is no group of Republicans that, through real actions with consequences and meaningful policy engagement, makes any significant effort to block the conservative agenda or implement a centrist one. That people who say different things from their co-partisans but act the same when the votes are counted can acquire reputations as independent-minded mavericks says a great deal about the culture of our political media -- and very little about where the legislative balance of power lies.

Channeling Howie Kurtz

2005-09-02T09:46:00.000-07:00

The Orange County Register's Dena Bunis spotlights John McCain's ad for Marilyn Brewer, noting it could help Brewer secure the votes of the almost 40% of Orange County Republicans who in 2000 opted to vote for McCain rather than Bush...after Dubya had all but locked up the nomination. But Bunis fails to consider that Brewer might also benefit from initially going positive (on TV only) while John Campbell goes negative.

The Daily Pilot's Alicia Robinson saves the best for almost last...

Some Democratic voters see Young as the total package -- and his charisma may be the bow on top.

"I just think he's got everything together to be the best candidate and to be a winning candidate," said Diane Valentino, president of the Laguna Beach Democrats. "He just has impressed a broad spectrum of people."

He's even hoping to bag some Republican votes. Orange County Democratic Party Chairman Frank Barbaro believes a Democrat could do that, provided that state Sen. John Campbell beats former Assemblywoman Marilyn Brewer in the Republican race.

"I think if Campbell ends up being the survivor ... there's a lot of Brewer supporters that won't vote for him," Barbaro said.

Young sees the general election as a three-man race among himself, Campbell and Gilchrist, an American Independent Party candidate.

...but generally overemphasizes Democratic discord and underplays ever increasing national interest in what was in 1988 a local race.

Finally, in a separate piece, Robinson gives John Campbell little of the favorable coverage he deserves for winning the New Majority endorsement, but also writes-up none of Brewer's harshest attacks on the on-again frontrunner. More importantly, Alicia misses an opportunity to analyze the New Majority's right-ward shift since former President Tom Tucker proclaimed "divisive social issues an anathema to the [Republican] Party."

Good Friday

2005-09-02T08:02:00.000-07:00

What:

Steve Young for Congress, Official Campaign Kickoff and Rally

Where:

Mason Regional Park - Shelter 5
18712 University Drive
Irvine, CA 92612
Phone: 949 923 2220

When:

Today, Friday, September 2nd at 6:30 PM

One America

2005-09-01T13:43:00.000-07:00

Jim Gilchrist has joined Steve Young in calling for contributions to the Hurricane Katrina Relief Effort. Jim will tonight from 3 to 10 PM join John & Ken, John Ziegler, and other KFI personalities in a live broadcast to benefit the American Red Cross.

Listen live here.

Brewer, Campbell, Graham, and Pallow have yet to offer their support.

New Life

2005-09-01T11:36:00.000-07:00

My forthcoming response to Hewitt.

The Old Minority?

2005-09-01T11:05:00.000-07:00

The New Majority has opted to endorse John Campbell for Congress. Woah.

The New Majority endorsement makes a Campbell victory in the Republican primary much more likely. Fortunately, it also lays the groundwork for a Young (or Graham) victory in the general. Come October and November, Democrats would have found it much tougher to run against a pro-choice, pro-stem cell research Republican.

Brewer:

I am disappointed that the New Majority abandoned its' founding principles in its 48th Congressional District endorsement.

The New Majority was founded to support fiscally conservative Republican candidates who are progressive on social issues. It had a mandate to support women candidates and diversity.

Instead of endorsing me, a proven fiscally conservative, experienced woman who is pro-choice, pro-stem cell research, and who has a consistent record opposing illegal immigration they endorsed a man who is anti-choice, opposed to stem cell research, has a schizophrenic record on illegal immigration and who authored legislation to provide a special tax break for one individual -- billionaire Paul Allen.

I call on the individual members of the New Majority to support me as the only candidate in this race who embodies the principles that the New Majority once advocated.

Duck, Duck, Goose

2005-09-01T10:00:00.000-07:00

Marilyn Brewer has on each of the past 17 days called on John Campbell to debate her.

Steve Young should take her up on the offer. Jim Gilchrist and John Kelly would follow suit, guaranteeing media coverage.

Young and Gilchrist would then get extra exposure and Campbell would be caught in a no-win situation, debate Marilyn or make well known his preference to avoid her.

Going Yard

2005-09-01T09:43:00.000-07:00

Campbell's are already up. Brewer's soon will be as well.

Yard Signs Available Beginning Next Week Call 949-275-3402 to Reserve One.

For Whom the Bell Tolls

2005-09-01T08:14:00.000-07:00

Daily Pilot columnist Joe Bell:

I've been looking for a moderate Republican around these parts for a long time, and that is what partly -- beside the wine and cheese, of course -- took me to the [Marilyn] Brewer affair. What I heard made me realize that I needed to moderate my definition of "moderate."

What clearly sets Brewer apart among the Republican candidates is her support of such social issues as choice for women and stem cell research. Other positions she articulated seemed to put her squarely in the Republican mainstream.

I got my hopes up a few years ago when an organization called the New Majority surfaced in Newport-Mesa. Sporting a bunch of corporate heavy-hitters, this group claimed to represent a rebirth of moderate Republicanism. They did manage to get rid of Tom Fuentes -- who had Orange County Republicans anchored firmly to the 19th century -- and strongly supported Arnold Schwarzenegger...

It would seem that Marilyn Brewer would qualify as a poster-girl for this group, which would like to broaden the Republican base statewide to challenge more Democrats. So I asked Brewer if the New Majority had offered any support. She said they hadn't so far. She understood they were divided about supporting her, but she was still hopeful.

"Divided" is part spin and part reality. Three New Majority members have already decided to back John Campbell. Why? Beats me. The New Majority aims to support socially moderate candidates. Campbell is anti-choice, anti-immigrant (?), and anti-gay. In other words, he is, per the organization's mission, exactly the type of candidate the New Majority was designed to help defeat.

Code Red, [13107(a)]

2005-08-31T23:54:00.000-07:00

The legal challenge mounted by latte-drinking, taco-eating (?), and Volvo-driving (?) Jim Gilchrist has prompted the Orange County Registrar of Voters to halt all production of special election sample ballots.

The Court's decision is expected as early as Friday. Allan Bartlett is correct in suggesting that win or lose, Gilchrist has played his cards (far-)right. Win and he is identified by his work for the Minuteman Project. Lose and he can continue to self-identify as a righteous outsider to dishonest politics that are selling America short. Either way, Jim's name and message remain front and center in the press.

Mulholland Drive

2005-08-31T22:53:00.000-07:00

The California Democratic Party tonight endorsed Steve Young by an overwhelming margin; 31 of 38 eligible delegates and authorized officers opted to support the pro-soldier, pro-Social Security, pro-environment, pro-American worker, pro-public education, and pro-economic opportunity candidate.

The endorsement is both consequence and cause of Steve Young's momentum. Candidates need receive 60% of the vote to obtain the CDP's backing. That Steve, a first-time candidate, was able to secure 80% of the vote suggests he is not only the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination, but a legit antidote to the culture of corruption that permeates Washington's "Do-Nothing Party." Why might Charlie Cook soon look back upon tonight's endorsement as "the making of something special" in California-48?

Because winning comes to those who look like winners. The CDP's endorsement is an early signal to both big-money and low-dollar Democrats that Young is worthy of their support. The result? A perhaps repeat of John Edwards' single evening $500,000 haul...in Orange County and Paul Hackett's $550,000 war chest (no pun intended) courtesy of...but 11 days of blogging.

More importantly, the party's endorsement is an invitation and request for activist involvement. Here come hundreds of SoCal Grassrootists and thousands of Democracy for Americans to knock and call Orange County blue.

United we stand. Divided they fall.

(Hat tip Political Dogfight).

Better Late Than Never

2005-08-31T11:32:00.000-07:00

Via the OC Blog, a late-breaking article from the Register. Early voting it is.

The better organized a campaign, the more it will gain from early voting.

Another reason to believe Steve Young could pull off the upset. The Young Turks know field.

O.C. apologizes to Jewish community
The Registrar of Voters office has scheduled the primary election for the 48th Congressional District on Rosh Hashana.

SANTA ANA -- An Orange County election official is to issue a "heartfelt" public apology to the Jewish community today for a scheduling decision that resulted in a congressional primary falling on the first day of Rosh Hashana. At an afternoon news conference in Santa Ana, Chief Deputy Registrar of Voters Neal Kelley also is expected to provide information on alternative voting methods, including absentee balloting and early voting...

"Suggesting to the governor that the primary for the 48th Congressional District be held on Oct. 4, Rosh Hashana, was an error," he said. "Before making a recommendation, the county should have sought the guidance of the Jewish community." Rosh Hashana, marking the Jewish new year, is one of the holiest days of the Jewish calendar - a day on which observant Jews shun any work or official transaction...

The American Civil Liberties Union of Southern California expressed its concern over the conflicting dates in a letter to the registrar earlier this week...To avoid litigation, the registrar must give written assurance that early voting will be made available, ACLU attorney Hector Villagra wrote.

Casino John?

2005-08-31T07:20:00.000-07:00

Kelly Lawler serves as Treasurer of John Campbell's campaign.

She also serves as Treasurer of T.E.A.M. PAC, an organization that has in 2005 donated $6500 to Republican candidates.

T.E.A.M. PAC's backers? (Among others,) Casino Jack and the Mississippi Band of Choctaw Indians.

(Re: Timing. Yes, but T.E.A.M. PAC has received only one contribution since 2003 and is very much playing with house money).

name id is half the battle

2005-08-30T22:33:00.000-07:00

Last week, California Secretary of State Bruce McPherson ruled that Jim Gilchrist could not on the special election ballot designate himself a "Minuteman," the "Minuteman Project Founder," or "Modern Minuteman." McPherson argued such a designation constituted a "commercial" rather than "professional, vocational, or occupational" identification as permitted by the state's election code.

The decision was widely -- and rightly -- seen as a blow to Jim's campaign. "Hard on immigration" voters (read: wingnuts) who fail to associate Gilchrist's name with anti-immigrant advocacy are unlikely to support the Minuteman founder on election day. Name id, as every first-time candidate knows, is half the battle.

Yesterday, per OC Weekly's Matt Coker at Clockwork Orange, Gilchrist vowed to file a legal challenge to McPherson's decision. Gilchrist campaign manager Howie Morgan:

Minuteman is Jim Gilchrist's vocation and calling...These terms hold significant value to the electorate in their ability to properly associate Jim's name with his active dedication to ensuring the safety and security of our nation. These terms hold equivalent value to labeling another candidate plumber, lawyer, businessman or CEO.

A vote for Gilchrist is a vote against the "Do-Nothing Party" of Marilyn Brewer and John Campbell. In a zero-sum, three (major) candidate general election, a vote for Jim is nearly as valuable as a vote for likely Democratic nominee Steve Young. Excepting from consideration the precedent a court ruling in Gilchrist's favor would set for future elections, Democrats should hope Jim's appeal proceeds. The enemy of my enemy...

[Update]: Dena Bunis writes up Gilchrist's lawsuit, filed in Sacramento County Superior Court, in this morning's Register.

I'll see your Howard and Raise you a Nancy

2005-08-30T13:53:00.000-07:00

More from the mailbox...

Brewer: Endorsed by Representative Nancy Johnson (R-CT), Business and Professional Women, and Women in Leadership.

Campbell: Endorsed by the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association, the California Women's Leadership Association, and the Free Enterprise Fund.

Bloggers Corner

2005-08-30T12:57:00.000-07:00

The Young Turks' much-anticipated update to Steve's website is now up.

Have a look. If so inclined, join the "Steve Young for Congress Blogger Community."

Spin City

2005-08-30T11:35:00.000-07:00

The formally informal talking points that come attached with Marilyn Brewer's press releases are often more entertaining than the releases themselves. See, for example, campaign manager James Vaughn's latest take on John Campbell and the Club for Growth commercial. Note that by "they," Vaughn means the Campbell campaign.

Our first commercial is about Marilyn, not about her opponents. I guess this makes Marilyn the front runner. ;) You only attack the front runner. If she really weren't a threat, why would they have to go after her before they even talk about who they are?

The Straight Talk Express

2005-08-30T10:28:00.000-07:00

From my mailbox to yours. Analysis forthcoming.

From Pat Toomey:

"I think Marilyn Brewer has made it pretty clear she's got some money, and she's going to spend it," [Pat] Toomey [president of Club for Growth] said.

From Marilyn Brewer Campaign Manager James Vaughn: (via email)

The Brewer for Congress campaign began its television advertising today with a cable spot featuring Senator John McCain. In the commercial, the first of several, Senator McCain introduces viewers to Marilyn Brewer and clearly states his support of her positions on the key issues facing the 48th Congressional District -- taxes, stem cell research and our oceans and beaches.

"I'm honored that Sen. McCain would step up and support my campaign. Like Ronald Reagan, he's a hero of mine and he knows that I always have, and always will fight for what I believe in. His 'straight talk' tells the voters I'm the best leader in Congress for this district on all the issues," said Brewer.
The ad begins running on August 30th.

video

Montage of pictures of Ronald Reagan, Nancy Reagan and Marilyn. Graphic text underlines support VO.

audio

JOHN McCAIN VOICE OVER moving stills:

Like Ronald Reagan, Marilyn Brewer is a fighter for lower taxes.

Like Nancy Reagan, Marilyn Brewer is a fighter for stem cell research.

video

McCain on camera.
(Disclaimer.)

audio

And, like me, she's a fighter to protect our oceans and beaches,

I'm John McCain. Let me give you a little Straight Talk about Marilyn Brewer.

We need her in the US Congress to keep the spirit of independence alive in America.

Vote Marilyn Brewer for Congress in the Special Election on Tuesday, October 4.

The spot should be available on Marilyn's website late this afternoon.

0 for 2?

2005-08-29T13:43:00.000-07:00

The OH-02 blog this afternoon noted that the Club for Growth earlier this summer attacked Jean Schmidt in much the same manner as it this morning went after Marilyn Brewer.

Washington, D.C. -- The political action arm of Club for Growth, a national free-market advocacy organization with over 30,000 members, today unveiled a radio ad opposing Ohio's 2nd District Republican candidate Jean Schmidt for her record of supporting higher taxes...

"Jean Schmidt is a proven supporter of higher taxes. Her record in the Ohio State Legislature shows that she voted to raise the state sales tax and opposed efforts to keep property taxes down," said Club for Growth President Pat Toomey. "Pat DeWine, Tom Brinkman, and Bob McEwen all have much better records and positions on the issues of taxes and spending. Any one of them would be highly preferable to Jean Schmidt."

Full text here.

Counter-Punch

2005-08-29T12:40:00.000-07:00

Doing unto others as they have done unto you. (Via email).

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Contact: James Vaughn, 949-275-3654
August 29, 2005

Statement of former Assemblymember Marilyn Brewer about the Club For Growth's attack

"John Campbell and his supporters are sounding more like John Kerry every day.

It appears that he was in favor of laws providing special status for illegal immigrants before he opposed them. Special interests supporting John Campbell want to talk about missed votes in the Legislature, but what they don't want to talk about are Campbell's missed votes on important legislation to concerning illegal immigration.

Campbell twice failed to vote on legislation allowing illegal aliens to use Mexico's identification as a valid form of ID in California, that's after he voted to urge cities and counties to accept it.

And Campbell also failed to vote against a bill allowing illegal aliens to obtain valid state drivers licenses, on the same day he voted to give illegal aliens in state tuition at our public colleges and university."

Lexicon of Terms

2005-08-29T11:29:00.000-07:00

Young Turks: Team ~~Hackett~~ Young.

Jew-bal: Venerable OC Blogger Jubal. (Used sparingly -- only during heated debate).

C.J. Cregg, Josh Lyman, Toby Ziegler, Donna Moss, and Charlie Young: Sam's West Wing -- and CA-48 (?) -- co-conspirators.

Stevie Wonder: Democratic congressional Candidate Steve Young. Finger~~tipped~~typed posts about his campaign will occasionally play on words from a certain musician's songs.

Swing Staters: Readers of the popular Swing State Project blog.

More to come.

let the bloodbath begin

2005-08-29T07:02:00.000-07:00

Per the Club for Growth's press release, the ad below will today begin airing on KFI-AM radio and Fox News throughout the 48th District and run for an "indefinite period of time."

Male 1: MARILYN BREWER?
Male 2: ABSENT.

Male 1: MARILYN BREWER?
Male 2: ABSENT.

Announcer: IN THE STATE LEGISLATURE, MARILYN BREWER SKIPPED MORE VOTES THAN ALL BUT ONE ORANGE COUNTY REPRESENTATIVE.

SHE MISSED MORE THAN THREE HUNDRED VOTES IN ALL.

WHEN SHE DID SHOW UP, SHE VOTED FOR A STATE BUDGET THAT WAS SO BLOATED EVEN GRAY DAVIS THOUGHT IT SPENT TOO MUCH MONEY.

MARILYN BREWER. SO LIBERAL, TAXPAYERS ARE BETTER OFF WHEN SHE DOESN'T VOTE.

CLUB FOR GROWTH PAC IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CONTENT OF THIS ADVERTISING.

Click here to view the TV ad or listen to the radio spot.

Special Interest

2005-08-28T23:55:00.000-07:00

Per Jubal, Dave Gilliard is managing John Campbell's congressional campaign. General election date: 12/06/05.

Per the Successor Project, Dave Gilliard is managing the effort to qualify an anti-immigration amendment to California's Constitution. Circulation deadline: 12/12/05.

In other words, Gilliard, acting on behalf of the California Border Police, is collecting the names and addresses of, among others, the exact bloc of voters whose support Jim Gilchrist had hoped to secure -- and who John Campbell would love to keep in his corner.

The potential for abuse -- for list-sharing between Gilliard clients -- is huge. If I were Jim Gilchrist, I'd suggest to Gilliard first and local media second that Dave only don a single hat.

Signed, Sealed, Delivered?

2005-08-28T21:26:00.000-07:00

The Young Turks' redesign of Steve's website has yet to go live...

Tommy Boy

2005-08-28T21:14:00.000-07:00

A "reverse" fundraiser? That's one new idea.

The most progressive Democrat in the 48th Congressional race in Orange County, Tom Pallow, is having a "Reverse" fundraiser at Players Sports Grill in Laguna Hills this Sunday, August 29, from 4 to 7 PM. What is a reverse fundraiser? It's free entry, free food, free drinks, and free "Tom Pallow, The Man with New Ideas" t-shirts. And if you even try to donate any money to Tom he will bounce you out of the fundraiser.

Here's another. Tom should spend $9 to purchase the URL http://www.PallowforCongress.com and, using "masked forwarding," automatically redirect visitors to his website. http://www.qualityism.com is a less than professional URL for a campaign homepage.

caucus caucus caucus caucus caucus caucus caucus caucus caucus caucus

2005-08-28T13:06:00.000-07:00

The Caucus for Conservative Action (CCA) yesterday endorsed Jim Gilchrist for Congress. Independent and non-partisan, the CCA's "primary goal is to provide the tipping point [for] conservative candidates in local, state, and national elections." Towards that end, the group sends foot soldiers to help endorsed campaigns in their final 72 hours.

CCA's most recent effort? Jean Schmidt for Congress.

[Update]: Official press release here.

Five for Fighting

2005-08-27T18:57:00.000-07:00

Orange County Business Journal Editor Rick Reiff reports that local business groups have announced two pre-primary debates among the candidates to succeed Chris Cox. The first event, a breakfast on the morning of Friday, September 16, 2005, will include all 17 declared candidates. The second debate, an evening forum on Monday, September 19, 2005, will include only the top "four to six candidates."

Doug Farry of TechNet, a "bipartisan, political network of CEOs that promotes the growth of technology and the innovation economy" and a sponor of the second debate, believes it will be a "challenge" to identify the top candidates.

But I disagree -- and believe Farry is merely being diplomatic. The top five candidates are Marilyn Brewer, John Campbell, Jim Gilchrist, John Graham, and Steve Young. As Farry, a former Senior Policy Advisor for Technology to House Majority Leader Dick Armey, well knows.

(Hat tip OC Blog).

A rich man has many friends

2005-08-27T11:32:00.000-07:00

As noted earlier, State Assemblyman Keith Richman (R-Northridge), a candidate for Treasurer in 2006, will on Monday introduce a bill that, if passed, would allow the Governor to change the date of the Rosh Hashanah Primary.

Richman's campaign manager during a recent assembly campaign? Current Marilyn Brewer consultant Harvey Englander.

John Campbell: I actually blogged FOR transparency in government before I blogged AGAINST it

2005-08-27T11:22:00.000-07:00

John Campbell, June 7, 2005:

Welcome to my new Blog, CA Confidential. Blogs first emerged onto the political scene last Fall during the heated Presidential election and proved to have a rightful place ensuring checks and balances in our everyday news cycle. As a legislator, I feel it is my duty to share with the people the stories behind the stories - the backroom deals and in-depth details that are so often lost in the headlines. I hope this Blog serves as a useful tool and I welcome your feedback to SenatorJohn@CAConfidential.com.

John Campbell, August 3, 2005. Via conservative Dana Point Councilman Jim Lacy's comment at the OC Blog:

Senator Campbell and Campbell supporters, listen-up! Please ask your staff to supply us a picture and 800 word bio/statement to put up on the TSP site. We've asked for it, gotten it from Brewer, but Campbell's managers have not responded to our request to have it to us by August 1. Also, we are dishearted that Campbell's campaign office has refused to answer Conservative Victory Fund's questionnaire. CVF is a member of The Successor Project Coalition. CVF is a venerable old DC based conservative movement PAC that supported Chris Cox for years and helped Chris in his first election to Congress. A staffer for CVF called the Campbell campaign last week to inquire why they hadn't received a completed copy of their questionnaire and was told "Campbell does not do questionnaires." But that is not really the case. Just check California Pro-Life's website for evidence of the Senator's past participation in questionnaires.

John Campbell, August 15, 2005. Via Lacy's own blog:

I am perplexed that Campbell has refused to answer the questionnaire of The Conservative Victory Fund (a TSP coalition member), especially since this is a group that should like his answers.

Winds of change?

2005-08-27T11:10:00.000-07:00

Pasco has the scoop.

"If Christmas came on a Tuesday, would you schedule a special election that day? Of course you wouldn't," said State Assemblyman Keith Richman (R-Northridge), who plans to introduce a bill Monday in the state Legislature that would give the governor more leeway in election scheduling.

If passed, the bill would give the governor two options. The first would allow the primary to be consolidated with the Nov. 8 statewide election. The second would allow the primary to be moved to a later date by giving the governor the authority to waive a law that prohibits elections from being held a day after state holidays. In that case, the governor could schedule the primary election Oct. 11, the day after Columbus Day is celebrated, instead of the currently scheduled date of Oct. 4.

It wasn't clear Friday if Richman's bill could pass in time to change the Oct. 4 vote. A spokesman for the registrar's office said the covers for the sample ballot have already been printed, with the candidate lists to be received from the secretary of state next week.

real grass

2005-08-26T22:53:00.000-07:00

The letter below to the editor of the Daily Pilot is written too poorly to have come at the request of the Brewer campaign. Ironically, it therefore speaks to Marilyn's potential.

Brewer fits in with the GOP majority

The 48th Congressional District race is a great opportunity for the Republican New Majority organized by wealthy Orange County business persons with a mandate to support mainstream Republicans and to put qualified women in office. Their efforts were to counteract the far-right, well-organized minority that didn't reflect the majority of the voters here. Marilyn Brewer qualifies for all the criteria, and they would do themselves proud to support her.

JANIE ARNOLD
Costa Mesa

He'll Have Issues

2005-08-26T21:58:00.000-07:00

C.J. Cregg believes Steve Young's website will soon go live. Stay tuned.

She's Got Issues

2005-08-26T21:25:00.000-07:00

Marilyn Brewer just added an issues page to her website. My first impression?

Sensational. Simultaneously less wordy and more substantive than John Campbell's issues section. Speaks to three important topics, choice, stem cell research, and the environment, Campbell tellingly -- and, according to the latest polling data, wisely -- ignores.

The Biggest Little Consultant in the World

2005-08-26T14:08:00.000-07:00

is taking an administrative leave from Hack n Flak to run a campaign. (Hint: Not John Campbell's). Via pinch-blogger Will Bailey:

Hopefully there will not be a run-off and he will be back in a month or so.

A Convenient Coincidence?

2005-08-26T08:01:00.000-07:00

Rather than acknowledge that he had the final say and that the buck stopped at the Governor's desk, Ah-nold several days ago fingered Orange County Registrar Steve Rodermund as responsible for the decision to hold the special election primary on the first day of Rosh Hashanah, a day on which most Jews do not conduct business or vote.

The result? A full-fledged brouhaha.

The fall guy? Rodermund.

County officials are declining to say why Steve was yesterday placed on administrative leave. But last week, Rodermund sure didn't sound like he was planning a pre-primary departure. And with several elections scheduled, Steve had plenty of work to do.

How "girlie" of Ah-nold. When the going got tough, Ah-nold made sure a military veteran got going.

Ballot Order

2005-08-25T14:03:00.000-07:00

Good news for Republican Campbell, Independent Gilchrist and Democrat Graham. Bad news for Republican Brewer and Democrat Young. Via the California Secretary of State (pdf):

1) John Kelly, Republican

2) John Campbell, Republican

3) David Crouch, Republican

4) Bruce Cohen, Libertarian

5) Steve Young, Democrat

6) Don Udall, Republican

7) Bea Foster, Democrat

8) Scott Maccabe, Republican

9) Guy Mailly, Republican

10) Marsha Morris, Republican

11) Marilyn Brewer, Republican

12) Marshall Sanders, Republican

13) Edward Suppe, Republican

14) Tom Pallow, Democrat

15) Bea Tiritilli, Green

16) John Graham, Democrat

17) Jim Gilchrist, American Idependent

(Hat tip HacknFlak).

Welcome Swing Staters

2005-08-25T12:20:00.000-07:00

Greatest hits here, here, here, here, here, and here.

Original reporting here, here, here, and here.

Come back anytime.

1988 1994

2005-08-25T10:45:00.000-07:00

Mo' Money, Mo' Money. (Via email).

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Contact: James Vaughn, 949-275-3654
BPW Elisabeth Gehl, 202-777-8962
August 25, 2005

Business and Professional Women PAC Endorses Brewer for Congress
Organization sees Brewer as top choice for California

Newport Beach - BPW/PAC, the political arm of Business and Professional Women/USA, endorses and supports Marilyn Brewer in her bid for the 48th Congressional district.

"We are proud to support Marilyn Brewer's campaign for the U.S. House of representatives," said Deborah Frett, CEO of BPW/USA...

Sure, BPW/PAC support is news. But what's more interesting is Harvey Englander's thoughts on the announcement.

Just a quick note... So, it looks like this is shaping up to be a replay of the 1994 Assembly election with two hard right candidates splitting the vote to let Marilyn take the seat.

Campbell's got his spin (1988). Brewer's got hers (1994).

Cracks in the Republic

2005-08-25T10:32:00.000-07:00

"Senator McCarthy" opines:

I am disappointed at the quality of the candidates for the 48th district...I have a bad feeling we will be stuck with a country club Republican...

At this point, unless Jim [Gilchrist] raises money and hires a better [campaign] team, he is going nowhere...For the sake of his movement, he better finish third place or higher or he jeopardizes the movement he started by being marginalizd...

[The] only difference between Marilyn Brewer [and] John Campbell is [that] Marilyn is honest about the abortion issue. John Campbell might give good lip service on abortion but can anyone honestly say he is ideologically grounded on the issue or willing to risk himself politically for it? If the answer is yes, why [is the] New Majority or Generation Next crowd supporting him? Hmm???

Brewer or Campbell will tow the Republican line on all the economic issues in Congress (I am not saying this is good thing).

Picture Perfect

2005-08-25T07:36:00.000-07:00

Blogger Mike Randall:

[John] Campbell will be blamed for causing a traffic jam when Air Force one shuts down the 5, 405, and 55 freeway and a family is photographed with crying kids because they couldn't make it to Disney's California Adventure.

Realistic? Dunno. But wouldn't it be nice?

Fit to Print

2005-08-25T06:26:00.000-07:00

Rise and shine with the Washington Times:

All candidates are on the same ballot, regardless of party, and a candidate must receive more than 50 percent of the vote to win -- an unlikely event with nearly 20 candidates in the race.

If nobody wins, the top vote-getters of each party would face off in a Dec. 6 general election, and as the lone independent, Mr. Gilchrist is assured a spot.

A split among conservatives voting for Mr. Gilchrist and state Sen. John Campbell could swing the vote to a Democratic candidate, [Republican Allan] Hoffenblum [political analyst and publisher of the California Target Book, a statewide political tracking report] said.

"Gilchrist will appeal to the hard-core conservatives on the single issue of immigration, and one would think, take votes away from John Campbell," Mr. Hoffenblum said.

And this:

"The thing that makes this race interesting and gives it a national twist is that Jim Gilchrist squeezed out [former Republican Rep.] Bob Dornan from doing a comeback campaign," said Hoffenblum.

Mr. Dornan, a 20-year congressional veteran, called Mr. Gilchrist last week before the Aug. 22 filing deadline and urged the activist to run for Congress.

"I asked if he was running, and he said, 'No, I'm supporting you,'?" Mr. Gilchrist said.

Is the New Majority Next?

2005-08-23T16:25:00.000-07:00

Campbell just announced the endorsement of Generation-NeXt, a group of about 20 young and ~~conservative~~ center-right Orange County business and community leaders.

Gen-NeXt Co-Founders Paul Makarechian and Sinan Kanatsiz are also members of the New Majority, a group of at least 150 fiscally conservative and socially moderate Orange County multimillionaires.

Including New Majority Founder and Outreach Committee Chairman Chairman Dale Dykema, that's three -- count 'em, three -- New Majority members to have already gone on the record in support of Campbell.

Were the anti-choice, anti-gay, anti-immigrant (?) and anti-gun control Campbell to secure the New Majority endorsement, he'd solidify his so-called "frontrunner" status. But the organization's "moderate" reputation would also suffer. Greatly.

Is one election more important than a six-year old mission? We're about to find out.

More Stimulating Talk Radio

2005-08-23T13:26:00.000-07:00

John Ziegler follows the The John and Ken Show every weekday on KFI AM 640.

Interested in learning about Ziegler's show and the ins and outs of KFI AM 640? Read on. (pdf).

Alicia vs. Jean.

2005-08-23T09:36:00.000-07:00

18 vs. 20.

Either way, four Democratic candidates and a divided party. Grmph.

Strange Bedfellows

2005-08-22T15:28:00.000-07:00

Grover Norquist has praised and John McCain has endorsed Marilyn Brewer.

But will Norquist and McCain praise or endorse each other?

Probably not.

Grover Norquist on John McCain: "The nut-job from Arizona...Gun-grabbing, tax-increasing Bolshevik."

John McCain advisor Mark Salter on Grover Norquist: "John McCain hasn't spent five seconds in his entire life thinking about Grover Norquist. He's not going to start now."

I Do Declare

2005-08-22T12:58:00.000-07:00

With four Democrats now having pulled papers, Political Dogfight posts a last-ditch plea for Democratic unity (and Steve Young).

My thoughts on the matter here.

John Campbell on the Rosh Hashanah primary

2005-08-22T12:04:00.000-07:00

Props to Senator Campbell for practicing what he preaches. (Late is also better than never).

I share your concern over the October 4th election date falling on Rosh Hashanah. It is my understanding that the General Election date was chosen by election officials in Orange County and that state law did not leave the Governor any options as to the primary date. Fortunately, California law allows voters to cast their ballot by mail, using an absentee ballot. Also, the county plans to have numerous "early voting locations available. These options might be best for those who choose not to vote at the polls on October 4th.

It's Marilyn's Party Too

2005-08-22T11:38:00.000-07:00

The battle for the heart of the California GOP and the future of America continues.

Via OCBJ Executive Editor Rick Reiff's latest OC Insider column: (Full text, no subscription required here).

First John McCain, now former New Jersey Gov. Christie Todd Whitman has endorsed Marilyn Brewer for Chris Cox's congressional seat. It's one moderate GOP woman backing another, but what makes it a bit more interesting is that Whitman's daughter, Kate, used to be Cox's D.C. press aide.

What makes it even more interesting is that Whitman, Bush's former Environmental Protection Agency "administrator" (director) endorsed Brewer despite Campbell's principled leadership on solar energy.

(Hat tip OC Blog).

Orange County welcomes

2005-08-22T09:04:00.000-07:00

Team ~~Hackett~~ Young.

Bee-Hind

2005-08-22T06:42:00.000-07:00

Kevin Yamamura of the Sacramento Bee (finally) writes up the controversy over the Rosh Hashanah primary.

"It shows a certain lack of respect for a large portion of the community," [Jewish Federation of Orange County CEO Shalom C.] Elcott said. "There will be significantly fewer voters from the Jewish community."

OC Blog: Facts, Schmacts!

2005-08-22T00:15:00.000-07:00

(Less Inflammatory Title: Making Mountains Out of Molehills).

If Jubal links to or summarizes an article, but fails to fact-check the entirety of that article, is he maliciously spreading lies? I would think not.

Re-reading my posts on the Rosh Hashanah primary, I noticed something. Big.

I never "happily repeated" or "hammered away" at the 100,000 number as Jubal would have you believe. Not once.

In my first post on the subject, I excerpted the 100,000 number directly from the Orange County Register. In my second post, I credited the Register with the 100,000 figure.

That's it. A "faux-controversy," indeed. (And I would appreciate but do not expect an apology. I thought Jubal's last post was a bit much).

[Update]: That didn't take long. On August 16, Jubal linked to the Orange County Register article titled "Election To Replace Cox Set For Dec. 6" without noting that Martin Wisckol and Dena Bunis incorrectly reported John Campbell's age. How malicious of Jubal. He wanted us to believe Campbell was older and more experienced than he actually is! Heh.

Two Ships Passing in the Night

2005-08-21T23:30:00.000-07:00

The vitriol in this post is too funny.

Jubal writes as if I blogged the 100,000 number out of malice. I write that I blogged Norberto Santana's figure as a matter of convenience -- and don't believe a higher or lower number makes my argument more or less persuasive. He rinses and repeats.

And makes my argument for me.

"The principle of equal access to the polls..." doesn't hold water because every voter in the 48th CD will have equal access to the polls -- unless you take an absurd view of what constitutes "equal access." For example, an invalid obviously does not enjoy "equal access to the polls" with everyone else.

An invalid is "one who is incapacitated by a chronic illness or disability."

More on the principle of equal access to the polls, disabled voters, and knowing thousands of voters when I see them (the gist of my response to Jubal's 1 voter question) tomorrow.

To Pander

2005-08-21T21:39:00.000-07:00

pan-der
intr.v. pan-dered, pan-der-ing, pan-ders

1. To appear at an opponent's rally in a sorry effort to excuse your past votes.
2. To co-chair your consultant's initiative in an opportunitistic attempt to position yourself for an upcoming election.
3. John Campbell at the California Border Patrol kick-off in Ontario.

On Fuzzy Math

2005-08-21T21:07:00.000-07:00

Jubal writes:

Norberto Santana's OCR article doesn't "suggest" there are 100,000 Jewish voters in the 48th CD -- it flatly asserts it as fact.

Precisely. I didn't invent the 100,000 number for persuasive effect. Why didn't the number strike me as unlikely? Truth be told, it did. Why didn't I go go Gadget google? Because I would have made the same argument about the Rosh Hashanah primary had Santana noted only 20,000 Jewish voters reside in the district. The principle of equal access to the polls still applies.

A few thousand voters here, a few thousand voters there, and pretty soon Jubal will be talking about real people.

(Much more to come).

All Things Considered

2005-08-21T14:31:00.000-07:00

Chuck Muth thinks it will take a "perfect storm" for Jim Gilchrist to pull off an upset. Probably not the best choice of words. Heh.

life begins at 100,000 conceptions

2005-08-21T11:57:00.000-07:00

Or so claims Jubal in defending the Rosh Hashanah Primary.

(Less Inflammatory Title: A few thousand voters here, a few thousand voters there, and pretty soon you're talking about real people).

Is CA-48 home to 100,000 Jewish voters, as originally suggested by Norberto Santana of the Orange County Register (and subsequently blogged on this very site)? Probably not. Given the impressive amount of evidence amassed to the contrary by the conservative OC Blogger, it is much more likely that the entire Jewish population of Orange County numbers between 60,000 and 90,000, of whom about 15%, or between 9,000 and 13,500, attend synagogue.

And? What's Jubal's point?

Beats me.

Discrimination: Unequal treatment of a person or a class of persons. If the result of an action, policy, or practice is unequal treatment of a particular protected class (e.g. religion), then that action, policy or practice is discriminatory. Discrimination may involve a single act or a continuing policy or practice.

I therefore concluded my previous post on the Rosh Hashanah Primary with the following question and answer, intended to illustrate inequality of treatment of a class of persons:

Can observant Jews vote absentee? Sure. But they shouldn't have to when Christians would never be asked to do the same.

Jubal termed my exit line "lame" and "gratuitous." But the same could be said for his post, for it altogether avoids standing on principle.

Guess it's not pronounced Jew-bal

2005-08-20T15:23:00.000-07:00

Finally, a substantive disagreement between Orange County blogs on the left and right!

OC Blogger Jubal disappoints by coming out in favor of the Rosh Hashanah Primary.

Were Easter on a Tuesday, no election would ever be scheduled on such an important Christian holiday. Absentee ballots or no absentee ballots.

The uproar over the important Jewish holiday wasn't manufactured. Shortly after the Governor set the election for the first day of Rosh Hashanah, the Jewish Federation of Orange County -- a religious, non-partisan organization -- wrote a letter requesting that Arnold change the date. Why? Because Jewish law prohibits believers of the faith from working during the holiday.

Pressed into action, Brewer, Gilchrist, Graham, and Young acted as would any true public servant, expressing their collective preference that the primary not occur on October 4, 2005. As the Orange County Register noted, each aims to succeed Chris Cox and represent more than 100,000 of the district's Jewish voters.

Can observant Jews vote absentee? Sure. But they shouldn't have to when Christians would never be asked to do the same.

All For One

2005-08-20T13:46:00.000-07:00

Political Dogfight has long believed that Democrats would be well served to field only one candidate in the CA-48 special election. (Of course, PD also has a dog in this race and a bone to pick, while I have neither).

After much thought, I've come to agree.

Philosophically, I'm opposed to efforts by Democratic power-brokers to clear the field for a chosen establishment candidate. But practically -- and in the case of CA-48 only -- I believe it makes sense for them (or bloggers or Democratic activists) to rally behind a single candidate before Monday's deadline.

~~I believe Democrats' best bet is to win the primary.~~ Come either a Campbell-Gilchrist-Young/Graham or Brewer-Gilchrist-Young/Graham general election, the Republican frontrunner will find it in their best interest to attack the Democratic nominee. But in a lone-Democrat primary, both Campbell and Brewer would be ill-served to acknowledge -- much less critique -- the Democrat. Were Campbell to attack the lone Democrat, he would drive votes to Brewer.

Were Brewer to attack the lone Democrat and compete for moderate Democratic votes, she'd undermine her ongoing effort to position herself as conservative enough for the district and spend limited resources on efforts likely to bring less bang for her buck than would attacks on Campbell. Better to articulate her support for choice and stem cell research and let the moderates fall where they may. Gilchrist might choose to criticize the lone Democrat, but he has few votes to gain from doing so by name and will probably stick to a broader critique of the Democratic Party's response to illegal immigration.

Further, the benefits to fielding a single candidate are significant. Staff could begin work immediately, local and national fundraising could be channeled to a single campaign, and a district-friendly message could be developed and repeated through election day. Helped by a national media itching to write more special election copy following Paul Hackett's near-win in OH-2, a single Democrat could enable, in the words of conservative OC Blogger Kahuna, "one of the great Republican Party screw-ups of our time."

Jim Gilchrist's

2005-08-20T11:54:00.000-07:00

website has been redesigned...Is the likeness between Jim and the bald eagle intentional? (Because I find it sort of freaky and would prefer the Gilchrist campaign use another photo).

A Bad Argument

2005-08-20T11:44:00.000-07:00

Many people believe that Jim Gilchrist and Marilyn Brewer won't succeed were Ken Maddox failed. That is to say, Gilchrist and Brewer won't have any more luck attacking John Campbell's "soft on immigration" votes than did Maddox.

Dena Bunis, for example, wrote the following in this morning's Orange County Register:

(Marilyn) Brewer plans to make an issue out of Campbell's vote on the in-state tuition bill, although former Assemblyman Ken Maddox tried that in his senate primary race against Campbell last year, and it didn't work.

And OC Blogger Jubal suggested the same 10 days ago:

Ken Maddox informed the voters of Campbell's prior bad vote on in-state tuition for illegal aliens, but got zero traction out of it.

They're wrong. Maddox's attacks were effective. But Campbell's attacks linking Maddox to labor unions were significantly moreso...As a parallel, consider the recent gubernatorial election. Democrats' attacks criticizing Schwarzenegger for his treatment of women were effective, but Arnold's attacks criticizing Democrats for supporting the status quo were moreso.

Further, the argument that the Maddox-Campbell election proves illegal immigration is not a winning issue in Orange County ignores first the importance of Schwarzenegger's endorsement of Campbell and second John's substantial fundraising edge in the 2004 race.

Why might history not repeat itself? First, though Schwarzenegger has again endorsed Campbell, the Governor is significantly less popular in 2005 than he was in 2004. As most Californians don't want to see "Schwarzenegger's Go-To Guy" go to Washington, I can't see Campbell sending a similar mail piece this year. Second, Brewer has to date matched Campbell's fundraising and Gilchrest has a national network of supporters. Third and finally, the argument put forth by Dena and Jubal runs contrary to the latest available polling data. By a 56 to 23 margin, CA-48 voters disapprove of Campbell's vote to give in-state tuition benefits to illegal immigrants.

John Campbell on Blogs

2005-08-19T19:20:00.000-07:00

He likes me. He really, really likes me.

The Blogosphere
Alternative media provide valuable information.
BY JOHN CAMPBELL

Blog. As I am typing this column, my 2 1/2-year-old version of Microsoft Office keeps identifying blog as a spelling error. It suggests that maybe I meant bog (spongy, wet ground) or perhaps blob (a small drop of something viscid or thick). But no, I did indeed mean "blog." It is a word that obviously did not exist 2 1/2 years ago and was not in common use 12 months ago. But it is now a major, new phenomenon of communication in our society.

For those of you who don't know, "blog" is an abbreviated colloquialism for the phrase "web log." A web log is an website where the writer posts a frequent monolog of ideas or comments or news on a subject of the writer's choosing...

Blogs are a way for people to communicate with a broad audience without having to pass through the press's filter and free of censorship...Another part of the blog phenomenon is its real-time nature. Once-a-day news cycles are no longer good enough in this nanosecond-paced world. In Sacramento, many times I will be interrupted during the day with some news that someone or another has posted on their blog. That knowledge can change how one reacts to circumstances during the day.

But, you say, I don't read blogs or have time to. That's OK. Not everyone reads the paper, either. But enough people do that it can have an effect...

Blogs are a free expression of opinion in a society that is struggling to stay free. As I spell-checked this column one more time, I added the word blog to my dictionary. You may want to do the same.

Quality Control

2005-08-19T19:09:00.000-07:00

Heh. Jimmy Madison's comment over at The Successor Project says it all:

Please spellcheck! It's not Gilcrest. It's Gilchrist. Thanks.

Indeed. Gilchrist, not "Gilcrest" or "Gilchristt" as TSP would have you believe.

Some have speculated that if Gilcrest were to win the December election, that he would become a Republican to associate with the majority party in Congress. But because of the requirement in the Elections Code, even if Gilchristt is elected to Congress and joins the ranks of the Republicans, he will not be allowed to file as a Republican candidate for re-election, because that filing is within the next 12 months, and he is registered in the AIP, not Republican party, and is outside the legal timeframe to switch parties.

Coming Soon to a Mailbox Near You

2005-08-19T05:38:00.000-07:00

Mickadeit:

Having made [John Campbell] as comfortable as possible, I then mauled him with an interview he gave our Hanh Quach in March of 2000, when he was running for his first term in the Assembly. It's this thing, along with his vote for college benefits for some illegal immigrants, that's going to get hung around his neck - especially if Minuteman Jim Gilchrist gets in the race - so might as well deal with it now.

From Quach's article: "(Campbell) says illegal immigrants should be given the same benefits as everyone else, since the federal government has not controlled the border to prevent the immigrants from coming in."

Gilchrist to make it official at 4 PM

2005-08-18T22:30:00.000-07:00

Confirmed by the Freepers; "The official announcement is expected by Gilchrist on the John & Ken show."

From Jim's website:

For a VERY big announcement...

Come meet Jim Gilchrist, the original Minuteman -- and show your support for his mission to get the government to do its job! Jim will be joining KFI's John & Ken...They will be broadcasting live from the Ayres Hotel Ontario Airport in Ontario at 1945 E Holt Blvd tomorrow from 3-7pm. Jim is slated for the show at 4:00 pm.

Tune in here.

So much for the "Do Not Fax List"

2005-08-18T22:15:00.000-07:00

Given that John Campbell joint authored legislation to eliminate annoying telemarketing calls, you'd think he'd refrain from sending unsolicited faxes to newspapers hundreds of miles away from CA-48. From the Sonoma Index-Tribune:

Another recent serial faxer is a guy named John Campbell, who's running for a congressional seat in Orange County. I'm not quite sure why we're getting daily - sometimes twice-daily - updates on what this dweeb has to say, since Orange County is 500 miles and about 20 congressional districts removed from Sonoma...We don't run endorsements and we really don't care who's endorsing a dufus in a district 500 miles from here.

Heh.

Advantage Marilyn?

2005-08-18T20:27:00.000-07:00

John Campbell and Marilyn Brewer today emailed to let me know each had raised more than $500,000. (Coincidence? I think not). Good for both -- but better for Marilyn. That she has to date kept pace with John lends more credence to her argument that "frontrunner status (is) up for grabs" than it does to his claim that "frontrunner momentum continues to build."

The mainstream media has to date treated Campbell as the all but inevitable winner. I wonder when and if coverage will change to reflect surprising fundraising realities.

Campbell:

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
CONTACT: Jim Terry
August 18, 2005

Campbell Passes Half a Million Dollars in Funds Raised
Frontrunner Momentum Continues to Build

(Irvine, CA) -- State Senator John Campbell has raised over half a million dollars for his campaign in the 48th Congressional District special election.

Commenting on the successful fundraising to date, Campbell said, "I am humbled and honored at the outpouring of support of my candidacy for Congress. People have been very generous and encouraging, and I am tremendously appreciative."

"The response to John's candidacy has been overwhelming. Right now, we are receiving an average of about $25,000 a day, and he is not even half way through his list of potential supporters," said Campbell consultant Dave Gilliard.

Gilliard added, "Considering federal limits prevent corporate contributions and the limits are significantly lower for individuals than the state level, we are very pleased with the progress we've made so far. We will have $2 million if we need it."

Brewer (via email):

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Contact: James Vaughn, 949-275-3654
August 18, 2005

Brewer Passes Half a Million Dollars in Funds Raised
Frontrunner status up for grabs

NEWPORT BEACH -- The congressional campaign of businesswoman and former State Assemblywoman Marilyn Brewer has passed the half million dollars mark in money raised in support of her campaign for the 48th Congressional District special election.

Brewer said, "I am in this race to win and I have the resources and backing to go toe to toe with anyone in this race."

Another Mensch

2005-08-18T15:45:00.000-07:00

Jim Gilchrist on Schwarzenegger's decision to schedule the special election primary during the Jewish High Holy Days:

If it had been up to me, I would NOT have set the date for this election on Rosh Hashanah. But, it wasn't my decision. So, our campaign will encourage all of our Jewish supporters to vote via absentee ballot or early voting if they cannot vote in person on October 4th.

Graham on the "Rosh Hashanah Primary"

2005-08-18T14:38:00.000-07:00

John is the third candidate to support the Jewish Federation of Orange County's request that Governor Schwarzenegger reschedule the primary election.

In this special election "season" it's going to be very hard to vote generally because the number of polls open will be about 20% of that in a regular election. Now throw in a Rosh Hashanah election date? The choice of October 4th by the Governor is simply outrageous and hard for me to understand unless I attribute it to political purposes -- it favors Republican voters. Protests are in order.

Memo to Marilyn

2005-08-18T10:07:00.000-07:00

Harvey's not on the ballot, you are.

I like Harvey Englander. I think he was a ~~good~~ great hire. (See, for example, "John Campbell is not going to be able hide behind just direct mail.") I believe that for the kind of campaign Marilyn wants to run, Harvey was the best consultant available. "Bloodbath" or no "bloodbath," Harvey is going to run a tight ship on Marilyn's behalf.

But Harvey's name shouldn't be in the papers, Marilyn's should.

Holding an election then would be akin to holding it on Christmas Day, said Harvey Englander, campaign manager for Marilyn Brewer, the former GOP Newport Beach assemblywoman who has declared her candidacy for Cox's seat.

"It's somewhat amazing to me that the governor's office wouldn't have taken this into account," he said. "It's true people can vote by absentee ballot, and a lot will, but some won't, and this is just inappropriate."

Instead, the excerpt should read:

Holding an election then would be akin to holding it on Christmas Day, said a spokesperson for Marilyn Brewer, the former GOP Newport Beach assemblywoman who has declared her candidacy for Cox's seat.

"Marilyn Brewer believes it's somewhat amazing that the governor's office wouldn't have taken this into account. It's true people can vote by absentee ballot, and a lot will, but some won't, and this is just inappropriate."

Spun?

2005-08-18T00:23:00.000-07:00

Alicia Robinson may have gotten the idea for the read between the lines parallel below (Campbell 2005 = Cox 1988) after speaking to former Orange County Republican uber-Chairman Tom Fuentes. Or she may have gotten the idea from Campbell's campaign and merely had Fuentes provide the supporting quote. Either way, good press for the frontrunner.

The entry of a large number of candidates, mainly Republicans, echoes what happened the last time the seat was open, when Cox first won it in 1988. A field of 16 people -- including 12 Republicans -- ran in that primary, with the relatively unknown Cox emerging as a front-runner in part because of his fundraising clout and White House ties.

Here, here

2005-08-18T00:11:00.000-07:00

I'm with Jubal. Gilchrist would be wise to keep "Sideshow Bob" Dornan as far away from his campaign as possible.

(Of course, keeping B-1 away doesn't preclude Gilchrist himself from launching into a "painfully long and loud oration about the ethnic heritage of everyone in" the Campbell, Brewer, Young, or Graham campaigns).

"B-1 Bob" endorses Gilchrist

2005-08-17T23:09:00.000-07:00

Woah. Via the DP:

Former Rep. Bob Dornan threw his support to American Independent Party candidate Jim Gilchrist.

John, Ken, Jim & Bob. And blogger Allan.

Stevie Wonder

2005-08-17T23:03:00.000-07:00

demonstrates he's media savvy. (Brewer would be wise to follow suit).

Candidate asks governor to move special primary

Democratic candidate Steve Young said he's asking the Governor to move the special primary from Oct. 4 -- the first day of Ramadan for Muslims and the day Jews celebrate Rosh Hashanah -- to Oct. 18.

Young said he also plans to deliver absentee voter materials to every synagogue and mosque in the 48th Congressional District.

"I really don't think it's appropriate to frankly disenfranchise people on the basis of religion, scheduling an election on a day when everyone knows they won't vote," he said.

Any Republican but Marilyn The Successor Project

2005-08-17T21:08:00.000-07:00

Will "The Successor Project" be a success? Maybe, but I doubt TSP will be as enjoyable a read as the OC Blog.

The Successor Project Launches Website and Blog to Monitor Candidates
Contact: Jim Lacy, (949) 495-3314
August 17, 2005

The Successor Project, an ad hoc coalition of conservative groups and grass-roots leaders, has launched a website and blog to monitor and review candidates in the special election to succeed former Congressman Chris Cox in the 48th Congressional District...

TSP has prepared a comprehensive questionnaire on policy issues which will be given to all candidates. The answers provided by each candidate will be posted on the website. Also to be posted on the website will be a video taped interview conducted by TSP members with each candidate...

TSP member organizations include the Washington, D.C.-based American Conservative Union PAC (ACU Chairman David Keene, spokesperson, 202-785-0500); Escondido, CA-based Justice PAC (Gary Kreep, spokesperson, 760-741-9580); California Young Americans for Freedom (Chairman Brandon Powers, spokesperson, 626-644-7602); Save Proposition 13 Candidate and Legislation Evaluation Committee (Jim Lacy, spokesperson, 714-878-6191); National Tax Limitation Committee PAC (Lew Uhler, spokesperson, 916-786-9400 ); Orange County Water PAC (Brett Barbre, spokesperson, 714-396-1350); and the Conservative Victory Fund (Ron Pearson, spokesperson, 202-547-7177).

TSPs Board of Directors includes: Dana Point Councilman Jim Lacy, Chairman and Brian Park, Irvine, Vice-Chairman. Lacy and Park both reside in the 48th Congressional District. Other Board Members include Mission Viejo Councilman John Paul Ledesma; Huntington Beach Union High School District Trustee Matthew Harper; Metropolitan Water District of Orange County Director Brett Barbre; and Deborah Courtney. Ad hoc coalition members are also represented on the Board of Directors.

Successor Project board members John Paul Ledesma amd Matthew Harper supported John Campbell in his campaign for State Senate. But Successor Project organizer Jim Lacy has pledged to remain neutral. From Lacy's blog:

I have not endorsed any candidate and won't because I am asking all the candidates to cooperate with The Successor Project by providing info, responding to our questionnaires, and doing a digital interview that we will put up on the site for each candidate. I need to be an honest broker here and endorsing a candidate would take away from that. But here is what I think: I like the fact that Gilcrest is making immigration a front and center issue, but I'm not so hot on him running as AIP. I am perplexed that Campbell has refused to answer the questionnaire of The Conservative Victory Fund (a TSP coalition member), especially since this is a group that should like his answers. And I have heard repeatedly from "insiders" that Brewer's record is more conservative than conventional wisdom.

Heh. TSP's members read like a Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) speaker list. They may not represent the Republican mainstream, but neither are they "outsiders."

Wanker of the Day

2005-08-17T16:17:00.000-07:00

The Orange County Register. It's not as if Campbell's running for Congress or anything...

State Sen. John Campbell is 50 years old. Because of a reporting error, Campbell's age was incorrect in an article in the Local section of the Aug. 16 edition of the Register.

Apples and Honey

2005-08-17T15:38:00.000-07:00

Two candidates have already taken strong stands on the "Rosh Hashanah and Ramadan Primary." Their thoughts follow. As the balance of candidates respond to the Jewish Federation of Orange County's request that Governor Schwarzenegger change the date of the special election, their thoughts will be posted as well.

Marilyn Brewer:

We don't think that the Governor would schedule an election on New Year's Eve...and for the same reason this special election should not be scheduled on the first day of the Jewish New Year.

The most appropriate date for this election would be in conjunction with the statewide special election to be held in November. This would save taxpayers money and would ensure the largest voter turnout.

Steve Young:

The Governor's scheduling of the special election on October 4 shows either: 1) the Governor's insensitivity to the High Holy Days of two important religions (October 4 is also the first day of Ramadan), or 2) his intent to disenfranchise a body of voters who traditionally side with Democratic candidates. If he really cares about the democratic process, he will of course reschedule the election.

If the Governor does not move the special election to October 18, I intend to go to every congregation in the district with an "Anti-Terminator Absentee Voter Registration Campaign" to prevent voter nullification of this important voting body in our district.

Marilyn Brewer

2005-08-17T10:43:00.000-07:00

also has a new website.

"Assemblywoman Marilyn Brewer's principled efforts against illegal immigration and her strong record of support for economic growth through lower taxes, are two solid reasons she's earned my vote and hopefully yours".

Congressman Chris Cox
Brewer for Assembly, 1996

The citizens of 48th Congressional District want a Congressional Representative who is fiscally responsible and who reflects our right to act with our own moral and social values and who knows the importance of our beaches and ocean.

My experience as a business owner, as a member of the California Assembly, and as a wife and mother, makes me the best choice to represent you in Congress.

I served in the State Assembly for six years until term limits caused my retirement. During my time in the Assembly I earned a reputation for being honest, tough and someone who delivered results...

My political views are straightforward:

I am with Ronald Reagan on tax reductions, government spending and reducing government's interference in our lives.

I stand with Nancy Reagan in support of stem cell research for medical purposes.

I agree with Betty Ford on protecting a woman's right to choose and opposing government deciding how families deal with important issues.

I want our borders safe and secure.

I stand with my entire family of life long surfers in protecting our Ocean...

I am the only candidate who will fight for tax relief, who will defend a woman's voice for choice, who will fully support stem cell research, and will protect your passion for clean beaches.

Steve Young

2005-08-17T10:06:00.000-07:00

has a new home on "the Internets."

By way of introduction, my name is Steve Young, and I am a candidate for the 48th District congressional seat.
100 years ago, Teddy Roosevelt stood up to Standard Oil, JP Morgan, and the Trusts and said, "I will not allow you Robber Barons to destroy America's middle class." Little more that 100 years later, Robber Barons are exporting our manufacturing jobs to China, and technology jobs to India. They are again destroying America's middle class.
I have an aggressive program to save our country's middle class. Can one man make a difference?.... I believe that no force on earth can stop an idea whose time has come. Join me for our future's sake.

Will the Chosen People Choose?

2005-08-17T05:17:00.000-07:00

Oh you probably won't remember me
It's probably ancient history
I'm one of the chosen few
Who went ahead and fell for you
I'm out of vogue, I'm out of touch
I fell too fast, I feel too much
I thought that you might have some advice to give
On how to be insensitive

One logistical hurdle has already appeared. The Cox special election has been scheduled on the first day of Rosh Hashanah, a day on which most Jews do not conduct business or vote.

With more than 100,000 Jewish voters in the district, the Irvine-based Jewish Federation of Orange County on Tuesday wrote the governor asking him to reschedule the election.

What Would Karl Do?

2005-08-16T19:27:00.000-07:00

Every couple of months, a Democratic politician or blogger promises to play hardball and engage in tactics employed by dirty Republican campaigns.

And then? Nothing. History repeats itself.

If Democrats want to win, they ought to ask themselves, "What Would Karl Do?"

Tasked with winning a free-for-all special election in a "safe" Democratic district, the answer is simple. Rove would recruit a candidate whose name is similar to that of the Democratic frontrunner. Chaos on the Democratic side, Rove would argue, could only help Republican candidates.

Undemocratic? Maybe. But uncommon? Hardly. In New York City, Democratic candidates routinely persuade individuals with names similar to those of their opponents to run in races for City Council...If Democrats are willing to tolerate such silliness in Democratic primaries, why not promote similar confusion on the Republican side?

Here's looking for you, John, Jim, or Jake Campbell.

Ackerman endorses Campbell

2005-08-16T19:10:00.000-07:00

The establishment loves itself.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE, August 16, 2005
CONTACT: Jim Terry, (949) 474-4206

Campbell Adds Four More Endorsements
Now leads 95-0 in Endorsements

(Irvine, CA) Republican State Senator John Campbell's campaign for Congress has added four more important endorsements: United States Congressman Howard "Buck" McKeon (R-CA), State Senator Dick Ackerman (R-Orange County), State Senator Sam Aanestad (R-Nevada County), and Dr. Ken Williams, member of the Orange County Board of Education...

Well-Funded?

2005-08-16T14:12:00.000-07:00

Per the Wall Street Journal's John Fund:

Jim Gilchrist, a retired CPA who is best known for founding the Minuteman Project that used volunteers to guard the Arizona-Mexico border, is entering the race. He has recruited former American Conservative Union executive director Chuck Muth and former Alan Keyes aide Mary Parker-Lewis as advisors. He will no doubt be able to raise hundreds of thousands of dollars in small donations through direct mail from anti-immigration activists.

Over the course of 11 days, Democratic bloggers raised more than $550,000 for Paul Hackett. If during the next six weeks anti-immigration activsts contribute a similar ammount to Gilchrist, John Campbell could be in trouble. Given Campbell's votes for "soft on immigration" policies, a well-funded Gilchrist campaign should have little trouble raising Campbell's negatives.

But what if anti-immigration activists don't pass Fund's bar? Then the Republican establishment will pay even less attention to Tom Tancredo's crusade.

A win-win situation.

Unlikely? Yes. Impossible? No.

2005-08-16T11:02:00.000-07:00

A couple days ago, a reader of the popular and well-written right-leaning OC Blog noted that CA-48, while strongly Republican, is not a far-right stronghold.

Polling I've seen shows voters the 48th to be moderately pro-choice, pretty strongly pro-environment, anti-tax, fans of smaller government, even slightly pro-gay rights (including marriage). Surprisingly few voters in this district see immigration as a major issue.

Indeed. Back in June, the reliably conservative OC Blogger "Kahuna" opined:

If this were a normal election in the normal two-year cycle, anyone other than the anointed Republican "Chosen One" wouldn't have a prayer of winning. But this isn't a normal election.

This is going to be a Congressional District Special Election called by the Governor with a preliminary Open Primary Election (aka free-for-all.) In an open primary (everyone on the same ballot and everyone, regardless of party, voting for anyone they choose) all it takes is a candidate receiving 50% plus one vote of those casting ballots to win the seat outright and negate the need for a run-off in a later special election.

If a special election is needed (i.e. no candidate receives the 50%+1 in the Open Primary) then only the top vote getters from each "recognized" party in the primary runs in the special election and the person who receives the most votes wins the seat.

Here's where the handicapping gets interesting...

Remember that John Graham, the Democratic challenger to Chris Cox in the last election (you have to be nuts to run for office every two years) received 32.2% of the total votes in the district. That's pretty amazing considering Graham, a UCI professor, didn't raise enough from individuals to even have to file.

So a Democratic challenger with absolutely not a snowball's chance in hell of winning against a respected multi-term incumbent does little except get his name on a ballot for an election where people actually turn out (it is, after all, a Presidential cycle and OC turns out 60.53% of eligible voters to the polls) and Graham picks-up over 30% of the votes cast!

If history is any guide, the turnout for the Open Primary will be in the 25%-30% range max...Figure at least a couple of Republicans.

[...]

The OC's Grand Old Party had better make damn sure that it doesn't put up a far-right partisan who will end-up the top vote-getter in the Open Primary and therefore be the sole Republican on the Special Election ballot. If they do they risk, in my opinion, alienating the moderate Republicans so they may not turn out to vote while at the same time providing impetus to the Democrats to mobilize their base, expand their reach, demonize the Republican candidate, and potentially grab the 48th in what will go down as one of the great Republican Party screw-ups of our time.

You heard Kahuna. Get 'er done.

CA-48: The New New Majority?

2005-08-15T21:46:00.000-07:00

Via Latino Pundit and the Los Angeles Times, demographic information to keep in mind.

The U.S. Census Bureau announced Wednesday that whites are no longer a majority in Orange County, where steady growth in Asian and Latino populations has dramatically changed a once-homogeneous suburban landscape.

[...]

Although whites are no longer a majority in Orange County because of a sweeping demographic tide led by Democratic-leaning Latinos, the famously conservative region remains as Republican as ever.

The reason: Many of the new minority residents are newborns or newcomers who have yet to become citizens — which means any profound political effect probably won't become evident for years.

Come and Get

2005-08-15T20:46:00.000-07:00

Him.

I'm from Yorba Linda and am look for an internship with either of the democratic campaigns. If anyone has any information about them, please email me at jkfp2004@aol.com. Thanks.

The Candidates

2005-08-15T16:40:00.000-07:00

Per Political Dogfight, the congressional primary in CA-48 will take place on October 4, 2005. Should not a single candidate secure 50% +1 of the primary vote, a general election between the top vote getters in each party will occur on December 6, 2005.

Background on CA-48 candidates follows. Three Republicans and two Democrats are already campaigning to succeed Chris Cox. Conservative bloggers believe an American Independent Party candidate is running as well. And a former Republican congressman may or may not soon throw his hat into the race. Finally, the DCCC is rumored to have recruited a third Democratic candidate whose name has not yet been made public.

Republican Party

State Senator John Campbell -- Anti-tax, pro-business, anti-choice, and anti-gay equality. Flip-flops on immigration. The "conservative" Republican "frontrunner." Elected to the State Senate in March of 2004 after several years in the State Assembly. Full biography here. Endorsed by Arnold Schwarzenegger, nine California Republican Congressmen, 11 State Senators, 27 State Assemblymen, the Club for Growth, the Lincoln Club of Orange County, and bloggers Hugh Hewitt and "Jubal." Full endorser list here. Campaign team includes Dave Gillard and Chris Wysocki (General Consultants) and Jim Terry (Manager).

Former State Assemblywoman Marilyn Brewer -- Pro-choice and pro-business. The Republican "moderate." Elected to the State Assembly in 1994, she was twice re-elected before being term limited-out in 2000. Full biography here. Endorsed by John McCain, Women in Leadership, and several former Assemblymen. Campaign team includes Harvey Englander (General Consultant and Direct Mail), Steve Kinney (Pollster), Tom Hammond (PAC Fundraiser), Peggy Goldwater Clay (Local Fundraiser), Frank Caterinicchio (Targeting), and Betty Presley (Treasurer).

Edward Suppe -- First-time candidate who believes "technology now allows ordinary citizens to compete with professional politicians." Computer industry businessman who volunteers for the Coast Guard.

Democratic Party

John Graham -- Pro-choice and pro-stem cell research. Position papers here. University of California at Irvine Professor. Democratic nominee in 2000, 2002, and 2004.

Steve Young -- "A fiscal conservative with Democratic ideals." Thoughts on numerous issues here. Lawyer. Endorsed by OC Grassroots, California Teachers for Excellence, and five Democratic clubs.

American Independent Party

Minutemen founder Jim Gilchrist -- Anti-immigration. Flip-flops on taxes. The wingnut. Endorsed by blogger Allan Bartlett. Campaign team includes Mary Parker-Lewis (General Consultant) and, in one capacity or another, Chuck Muth. Has retained Orange County based Bieber Communications to help with direct mail.

Other (Potential)

Former Congressman "B-1 Bob" Dornan -- Anti-choice, anti-gay, etc. The foul-mouthed far-right flame-thrower. Elected to the US House of Representatives in 1976, he was twice reelected before running unsuccessfully for US Senate in 1982. Elected again to the House in 1984, he was reelected five times before running unsuccessfully for both President and the House in 1996. Defeated again in 1998 and 2004. Full biography here.

Supped-Up

2005-08-15T10:31:00.000-07:00

The more Republicans, the merrier.

Huntington Beach Republican businessman Edward Suppe announced Friday he'll muscle his way into the race to fill the 48th Congressional District seat, which Chris Cox had held since 1988 but left Aug. 2 to become chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission. Suppe, 49, is a Coast Guard volunteer who works in the computer industry. He said in a statement he wants to improve homeland security and protect the world's oceans. He has never run for office before.

"These seats rarely come open, and this is a chance in a lifetime for me," he said. "My experience in high-tech and international business led me to the realization that, using technology, I can run a zero-debt campaign. Technology now allows ordinary citizens to compete with professional politicians."

And ordinary citizens to compete with professional media.

John Campbell: FOR illegal immigration before he was AGAINST it

2005-08-15T01:07:00.000-07:00

John Gilchrist's argument, Part I

When exactly did State Senator Campbell realize his vote to give in-state tuition benefits to illegal immigrants and their children was a "mistake?" And are OC Blogers giving Campbell a pass more easily than will Republican primary voters? (My good conservative friend Josh Lyman, for example, isn't buying Campbell's spin).

Via immigration lawyer Greg Siskind, Campbell in March of 2004:

Of the two Republican candidates running for the thirty-fifth Senate District seat in Orange County, California, Assemblyman John Campbell has endorsements from both Governor Schwarzenegger and from the outgoing seat holder, who has to leave his post due to term limits. Campbell has received criticism from his opponent for having a soft approach to illegal immigration. Campbell defended his approach by explaining that he voted for Mexican Consulate identification cards because their use was supported by law enforcement officials and he voted to allow illegal immigrants to pay in-state tuition because it helps a very limited group of individuals who have lived in California for at least three years, are California high school graduates and have applied for legal status.

Via KTKZ radio talk show host Eric Hogue, Campbell in June of 2005:

Hogue - Numerous bloggers in Orange County are commenting about a vote that you offered in 2001 on the Assembly side, when you were there, that would give 'in state tuition' benefits (favors) toward illegal immigrants, or the children of illegal immigrants in California. Do you remember that vote sir?

Senator Campbell - I do remember that vote, and let me...let me start out by saying basically that was first few months in the Assembly, and I can tell you why I was convinced at the time to make that vote...because of a clause in there which wound up being 'weakened' and unenforceable.

(The original clause) Which was going to say, that the people had to be actually...recognized by the US Government, and in the process of citizenship. But, that ended up being a non-enforceable thing. So, basically that vote was not...well it was a mistake.

And if you look, I never made any other vote...I learned from that vote, and to make more (of an example)...it was in my first few months as I said, to analyze these things more and make no vote since then.

The John, Ken, and Jim Test

2005-08-14T23:46:00.000-07:00

The Power Blue Report is blogging that Minuteman founder Jim Gilchrist will indeed run for Congress.

My take is that Gilchrist's campaign is a potential winner (scary, eh?) that will, in any case, fundamentally alter the dynamics of the race. Why does it say here that Gilchrist is a real threat?

First, Gilchrist can raise money nationally. See, for example, here, here, and here. Second, Gilchrist will receive a tremendous amount of media coverage. (Most of it negative, but still). Per Chuck Muth:

The bottom line is this: Jim's candidacy will generate a LOT of media attention (much of which will try to paint him as a "racist" and a "vigilante"). But his message WILL get out. Nationally. The Republican Party establishment will not be able to sweep this issue under the carpet any longer.

But if Jim is to have any chance at all of pulling off a major upset and actually winning this race, we're going to need to raise a LOT of money from small-dollar contributors from a LOT of people like you from around the country.

Third, Gilchrist is strong where Campbell is weak (in the eyes of conservative voters). Campbell, you recall, voted both to give in-state tuition benefits to illegal immigrants and their children and to allow illegal immigrants to obtain city and county services by displaying identification cards issued by the Mexican Consulate. Fourth, turnout will be low in the CA-48 special election. Those most likely to vote? Anti-immigration wingnuts. Fifth, radio hosts John & Ken are apt to adopt Gilchrist as their own...

And One?

2005-08-14T04:37:00.000-07:00

Political Dogfight is blogging that the DCCC has lured a candidate* into the race to succeed Chris Cox. Good for them. (And us).

The "wisdom" of running multiple candidates notwithstanding, I believe Democrats will ultimately benefit from the DCCC's recruitment efforts.

*Importantly, however, the "D-Trip" has been calling candidates for days and had earlier identified several great would-be Congressmen. I'd therefore shy away from characterizing the recruited candidate as the Party's second choice. But I will echo the concern about timing.

Any Minute Now?

2005-08-14T01:35:00.000-07:00

Am I the only one who believes the audience's reaction to Jim Gilchrist -- and vice versa -- at Thursday night's immigration forum suggests that the Minuteman founder will soon declare that he is indeed running for Congress? And that Campbell and Brewer would be wise not to take his campaign lightly?

Proud to be Anti-Choice?

2005-08-14T01:01:00.000-07:00

Think anti-choice John Campbell isn't concerned about pro-choice Marilyn Brewer? Think again.

Campbell's position on choice is conspicuously absent from his campaign website.

Big Business

2005-08-14T00:28:00.000-07:00

The mainstream media forgets that conservative bloggers also contribute in increments of $10, $25, and $50.

Or do they? Hugh Hewitt, for example, chipped in with a cool $2100 to help State Senator John Campbell, a frequent guest on Hewitt's radio program.

[Update] Hugh's wife, Elizabeth, also forked over $2100.

Majority Report

2005-08-13T13:56:00.000-07:00

About the still-undecided New Majority:

The New Majority is an organization founded on a vision of bringing a Republican majority to California by lending the necessary resources to candidates who support fiscally responsible government and an inclusive Party.

Since 2000, the New Majority has contributed more than ten million dollars to Republican candidates and causes. Many of our individual members have donated and directed millions more. In our first year we said we were "creating a group that was going to level the playing field in California politics." Back then we had just four members. Today, with more than 100 members and an annual budget of more than $1 million, it looks like our prediction could not have been more accurate.

Republican gubernatorial nominee Dan Lungren's 23-point defeat helped "sow the seeds" for the birth of the New Majority. During that historic 1998 election, founding members Thomas E. Tucker, Lawrence M. Higby, Mark C. Johnson and Gary Hunt attended a fundraiser in support of the Lungren effort at their long-time friend General William Lyon's home. At the event, they discussed the need for a paradigm shift in California politics-one where fiscally conservative and socially mainstream candidates run for election on an equal footing with ultra-conservative candidates. Shortly after that evening, the idea for the New Majority was born.

We began with four individuals and a big dream. Today we have over 140 members in Orange County and we have expanded into the Los Angles Region.

Former New Majority President Tom Tucker:

Divisive social issues are an anathema to the [Republican] Party.

State Senator John Campbell on choice and gay equality:

John Campbell is a strong voice for traditional family values...John has continually defended the institution of marriage and has fought hard against the expansion of gay rights.

In 2000, John Campbell supported Proposition 22, which defined marriage in California as a union between a man and a woman. Additionally, for three consecutive years he signed the Marriage Protection Pledge from the Campaign for California Families, which is a 'pledge to protect and defend the institution of marriage (and) ... support marriage and oppose all counterfeits to marriage with (the)...votes, powers and privileges of public office.'

During his tenure in office, John Campbell opposed AB 25 (Migden) in 2001, which greatly expanded 'domestic partnership' benefits to closely resemble those of a traditional marriage. Additionally, he opposed AB 205 (Goldberg), which expanded domestic partnership benefits further, by requiring the state to recognize them as legal unions and including them in the state's heavily bloated pension system.

Being pro-life, John Campbell has annually voted for budget amendments, including the 2003 Runner and Aghazarian amendments, which would have banned publicly funded abortions or limited them only to instances in which a mother's life is in jeopardy.

John Campbell believes that protecting traditional family values and opposing liberal attempts to destroy them are essential to preserving the health of our society. To that end, John supports President Bush's Constitutional amendment to protect marriage and does not waiver in his protection of the moral fabric of our state.

General Election Fodder

2005-08-13T10:33:00.000-07:00

"He's not even Chris Cox lite. He's Chris Cox ultra-lite."
-- Marilyn Brewer consultant Harvey Englander on State Senator John Campbell (Roll Call, 8/8/5).

Where Credit Is Due

2005-08-13T01:27:00.000-07:00

I would be remiss if I didn't praise Senator Campbell for several months ago embracing the netroots, even if he only did so for 13 days and has since stopped blogging.

(He stopped. They stopped).

John Edwards

2005-08-12T23:35:00.000-07:00

Turned Orange County blue. More evidence that those who say Democrats can't compete in CA-48 are all hat and no cattle.

Well, Well, Well

2005-08-12T13:55:00.000-07:00

Welcome OC Bloggers!

Not only well written, well done.